Myanmar’s new president: Does he have what it takes?

Global Asia

When the former chief of the Myanmar junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, was selected as the country’s new president on April 3, a pro-military website in the capital Naypyitaw described it as a “return to civilian-led democracy.” It feels like a cruel joke. Critics, among them the International Federation for Human Rights and ALTSEAN-Burma, a regional human rights organization, would argue that the selection, and the election, which for internal security reasons was held in three phases in December 2025 and January 2026, did little more than formalize military rule.

The military, led by Min Aung Hlaing, seized absolute power in a coup in February 2021, dissolved the democratically elected parliament, arrested MPs and state leaders including President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and launched a bloody crackdown against people who took to the streets to oppose the takeover. All major pro-democracy parties were dissolved well before the recent election, which led to the preordained landslide victory for the military’s political wing, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). In addition, a quarter of the seats in both the Upper and the Lower House are reserved for the military. When elections had been mostly free and fair in 2015 and 2020, the USDP lost badly to the now-deregistered National League for Democracy, the party of Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi, who both remain interned in undisclosed detention centers.

Changing of the guard

Far from being a transition to “civilian-led democracy,” the transition from direct to indirect military rule heralds a changing of the guard, with Min Aung Hlaing trying to cement his role as the undisputed leader of the country. Analysts estimate that over 80 percent of the Union Ministers are either active-duty officers or retired military personnel who have transitioned into the USDP. The new president has purged potential rivals and surrounded himself with loyalists. His deputy as military chief before becoming president, General Soe Win, has been replaced by General Ye Win Oo, who is less senior in the military hierarchy. Perhaps more importantly, Ye Win Oo has served as the Chief of Military Security Affairs, the military’s internal security apparatus, and is widely known as Min Aung Hlaing’s “eyes and ears.”

According to Myanmar analyst Ye Myo Hein: “Soe Win, being the last remaining senior figure from earlier generations [of army officers] may be viewed as too strong and institutionally grounded and could challenge Min Aung Hlaing’s continued influence and personal security. By contrast, the selection of Ye Win Oo appears to reflect a preference for loyal dependency and his own safety.”

The fact that Ye Win Oo – an alumnus of the 77th intake of the Officer Training School (OTS) – has become military chief in a hierarchy traditionally dominated by Defense Services Academy (DSA) graduates reflects Min Aung Hlaing’s trust in him, analysts say. He is also the first former military intelligence chief to take the reins of the Myanmar military. And that may, Ye Myo Hein argues, “expose him to resistance or skepticism within the officer corps, further constraining his power.” In other words, the new top leadership appears to be much less cohesive than that of previous military-dominated regimes. Other Min Aung Hlaing loyalists include former junta secretary General Aung Lin Dwe, who has been appointed parliamentary speaker; and deputy speaker General Maung Ohn, the former deputy minister of home affairs.

Rising slowly

Min Aung Hlaing was born on July 3, 1956, in Minbu, Magwe region. After studying law at Yangon University, he entered the DSA on his third attempt in 1974. He was an unremarkable cadet, shunned by his classmates. He graduated in 1977 and was for years a relatively unassuming infantryman. But he was loyal to his superiors and moved up the ladder, eventually becoming commander of the Bureau of Special Operations-2. As such, he oversaw operations in Kokang in northeastern Shan State in 2009, which led to the flight of tens of thousands of people across the border to China. According to a biography compiled by the British Broadcasting Corporation: “Despite allegations of murder, rape and arson against his troops, Min Aung Hlaing continued to rise and in August 2010 he became joint chief of staff.” Others would argue that it was precisely because of those allegations, and his loyalty to then-junta chief Senior General Than Shwe, that he eventually rose to the top.

Than Shwe, who ruled Myanmar from 1992 to 2003, is now 93 years old and has faded into the background. It has yet to be determined whether the “unremarkable” and “unassuming” Min Aung Hlaing has what it takes to become a new strongman. After the 2021 coup, he appeared insecure and unstatesmanlike when he spoke to the nation over television, struggling with his delivery, and looking oblivious to the chaos then engulfing the country. As late as last year, there was considerable speculation over whether he would be replaced by a stronger and more determined officer because he had been unable to crush widespread, even armed, post-coup resistance, leading to dissatisfaction within the ranks.

The weakest strongman

Min Aung Hlaing has been described by Ye Myo Hein and other military analysts as the weakest in the history of military strongmen. He lacks the charisma of General Ne Win, who ruled from the first coup in 1962 until his retirement in the late 1980s, nor the respect his successor, General Saw Maung, enjoyed among the ranks before he developed mental problems and, in 1992, had to be “permitted to retire,” as the saying goes in Myanmar when someone has been purged. And Min Aung Hlaing definitely does not possess the manipulative skills of Than Shwe, which kept him in power for nearly two decades.

Min Aung Hlaing also takes over the presidency at a time Myanmar is going through a severe economic crisis, rooted in shortages of fossil fuel caused by the war in the Middle East as well as years of mismanagement. It remains to be seen if Min Aung Hlaing can survive all those challenges, his position being far less secure than that of any of his predecessors.